Note Graphs represent Climatic change. This is 1994-5 Data 1. EXISTING ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE .

Expected changes in the existing environment in the immediate future include ; as a consequence of global warming ; Temperature rises , rising sea levels and increases in extremities of weather ; Humidity , precipitation levels , spread of flora , ozone depletion , rising radiation levels ; increases in dioxide and trioxide levels in the atmosphere and sulphides in rain . Expected sea level rises and tidal level increases . Estimates quantified in the following clauses and requiring a general raising of standards of general environmental performance and an awareness of the new demands likely to arise from such factors . ie increased cooling loads .

The IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate concluded that “ the observed increase in Global mean temperature of 0.3 degrees C.to 0.6 degrees C. was unlikely to be entirely due to natural causes.”1

Q”Analysis of two consecutive series of data by Nansan Environmental and remote sensing Centre in Bergen , Norway reported in August 1995 that since 1978 sea ice had been melting around Antarctica , and Arctic pack ice was melting faster than previously , at 2.5% to 4.3% per decade.”2

Supported similarly by Q” Siberian summers were the warmest for 1,000 years.”3

2. TEMPERATURE .

Rise : Estimated 2 to 4 deg. C by 2030.

Base data is derived from the CSIRO mean dry bulb temperature readings . Two estimates were determined ;

1. for Best Estimate Average Temperature increase based on SA 90 and IS92 f readings for the IPCC 1992 scenarios assuming “ best estimate “ climatic sensitivity . Where the effects of sulphate aerosol and ozone depletion have not been taken into account for the years 1990 to 2100.

The conclusion remaining consistent with the 1990 report and stating

Q” the size of this warming is broadly consistent with the predictions of climate models , but is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability . Thus the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability ; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human -induced greenhouse warming”.4

Mean Temperature Change in Degrees C. were read and added to CSIRO Mean dry bulb Temperature readings tabled and charted against existing mean Summer and Winter Mean Minimum and Mean Maximum Temperature.

2. for Best Estimate Maximum of 4 degrees C. Temperature rise by 2030 and rising by a projected 1 degree C. per decade (10 years) thereafter . A straight Line Maximum Approximation of maximum change. The Rise in Temperature was similarly read and added to CSIRO Mean dry bulb Temperature readings tabled and charted against existing mean Summer and Winter Mean Minimum and Mean Maximum Temperature.

RESULTS; both cases show marked seasonal changes in temperature :

Case 1; SA90 & IS92f . Rise. demonstrates that in the next century ;

i) Mean winter temperature rise to equal the current Summer minimum at 2026 AD. Effective loss of seasonal distinction .

ii) Winter mean minimum equals 10 degrees C. at 2030 AD.

iii) Rate of Temperature rise is ;

0.25 degrees by 2000 AD. +0.25 0.5 degrees by 2010 AD +0.25 0.8 degrees by 2020 AD +0.30 1.1 degrees by 2030 AD +0.30 1.4 degrees by 2040 AD +0.30 1.7 degrees by 2050 AD +0.30 2.1 degrees by 2060 AD +0.40 2.35 degrees by 2070 AD +0.25 2.7. degrees by 2080 AD +0.35 3.0 degrees by 2090 AD +0.30 3.35 degrees by 2100 AD +0.35

iv) the Mean maximum temperature rise for the period 1990 to 2100 AD will be 3.35 degrees C. equivalent to a 19 % Rise in Temperatures.

v) Factors commencing warming at 1997 currently exist . Average Temperature Annually 17.625 CSIRO. 5% increase by 2020 . AD. 10% increase by 2050 . AD.

vi) The 2100 AD Summer

Mean Maximum Temperature 28.85 degrees C. = 83.93 degrees farenheight. Mean Minimum Temperature 21.85 degrees C. = 71.33 degrees farenheight.

vii) The 2100 AD Winter

Mean Maximum Temperature 20.85 degrees C. = 69.53 degrees farenheight. Mean Minimum Temperature 12.35 degrees C. = 54.23 degrees farenheight.

viii) Sydney’s temperature range will will be equivalent to that currently experienced by Brisbane .

Case 2; Straight line Rise. Maximum. demonstrates that in the next century ;

i) Mean summer temperature rise to equal the current maximum at 2025 AD.

ii) Summers minimum equals current maximum by 2060 AD.

iii) Winter temperatures Mean maximum equals Current summers maximum at 2070.

iv) Winter as currently experienced will no longer exist by 2075 AD.

v) the Mean maximum temperature rise for the period 1990 to 2100 AD. will be 11 degrees C. Equivalent to a 62.4 % increase on the current annual average temperature.Percentage rise for each decade estimated at ; 5.6 % increase by 2000 AD. 11.3 % increase by 2010 AD. 17.02 % increase by 2020 AD. 22.69 % increase by 2030 AD. 28 % increase by 2040 AD. 34 % increase by 2050 AD. 39 % increase by 2060 AD. 45 % increase by 2070 AD. 51 % increase by 2080 AD. 56 % increase by 2090 AD. 62.4 % increase by 2100 AD.

vi) The 2100 AD Summer .

Mean Maximum Temperature 36.5 degrees C. = 97.7 degrees farenheight. Mean Minimum Temperature 29.5 degrees C. = 85.1.degrees farenheight.

vii) The 2100 AD Winter.

Mean Maximum Temperature 28.5 degrees C. = 83.3 degrees farenheight. Mean Minimum Temperature 20.0 degrees C. = 68.0 degrees farenheight.

viii) Sydney temperature range will be equivalent to that currently experienced by Darwin.

3.0. HUMIDITY & HUMITURE .

3.1. GENERAL .

Accompanying the changes in temperature will be changes in relative humidity levels. Combination of high temperature and high relative humidity causes discomfort for human beings .

3.2. HUMITURE .

The measure of human comfort levels relative to temperature or humiture relate to human health.

Humiture levels of 105 and above are potentially dangerous . 105 ; dangerous for sport. 109 ; potentially dangerous for sickly people . 113 ; potentially dangerous for healthy people . these levels are plotted in the appended charts.

3.3. ESTIMATED HUMITURE IMPACT.

Estimates for Global Mean temperature increase from SA90 were used for two cases ; and Humiture calculated for 5 levels of Relative Humidity5 . 98% RH, 85% RH , 70% RH, 56% RH and 49%RH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY:

Average percentage at time of maximum dry bulb temperature. 56%.Summer 49%.Winter.

Case 1. SA 90 Best Estimate Mean Global Rise in Temperature. Case 2. SA 90 Best Estimate Maximum Global Rise in Temperature 3.4. RESULTS.

Results estimated are charted against identified Humiture danger levels. Results can be seen in the Appended charts.

A.)56 %RH ( the assumption being that relative humidity will remain the same for maximum dry bulb temperature. A doubtful scenario due to the evaporative effect of higher temperature, general increased precipitation and increased sea and ocean surface areas.) The Impact reaches danger level at Maximum global rise in Temperature Mid century 2050 AD. SA90 Mean Global rise remains within acceptable limits.

Assuming RH rises the higher estimates are valuable in indicating a range of scenarios including ; B.)70% RH; which indicates danger to public activities from 2030 AD and high mortality rates from 2060 AD. Mean SA90 rise in temperature remains slightly below danger levels.

C.) 85% RH; With the mean humiture reaching danger levels Mid 21st century and the Maximum Impacting sporting activities at 2010 AD and posing serious problems at 2020 AD to the sick.

Case 1 and Case 2. Humiture results indicate serious environmental danger is posed for mean maximum temperatures in summer ; at

D.) 98% RH. i) sport from 2000 AD. ii) to sickly persons from 2010 AD. iii) to healthy persons at approximately 2020 AD. ie for 50% of the days of above average Summer temperature at a high humidity level.

Bearing in mind that the general relative humidity at sea level is higher than those evidenced at altitude and inland areas . Human Comfort levels will generally be diminished . Accelerated maximum global warming poses serious danger to persons during the above average temperature days commencing from 2000 AD.

WET BULB MAXIMUM ESTIMATE 31 DEG Celsius.

Cases 1 and 2. were also calculated for a wet bulb temperature of 31 degrees Celsius at 56% RH. the results confirming serious dangers to public health at temperatures rising above 30 degrees Celsius at the recorded CSIRO maximum humidity at time of maximum temperature . Impacting immediately for both mean and maximum global warming cases.

3.5. DRY HEAT ;

Sudden increases in dry heat will result in increased expansion of material requiring increased movement tolerances generally +/- 6mm increasing to +/- 8mm. general material and construction tolerances capable of future expected expansion.

3.6. HIGH LEVEL HUMIDITY .

Constant high level humidity increases the likely hood of mould growth , funguses and bacterial decay of materials . Warmer climates breed bacteria and decay faster.

4.0. RISING WATER TABLE . 4.1. FACTORS VARYING WATER LEVEL ON THE COAST .

i) Tides;

Caused by the relative motion of the Sun , Moon and Earth and their gravitational attraction.

ii) Wind set up and the inverse barometer effect;

Caused by local meteorological conditions. Wind drag forces develop between the water and air and the water surface . They are proportional to the square of the wind speed and inversely proportional to the water depth. Generating a wind drift current , transporting water towards the coast and piling it up as wind set up. Barometric pressure drops cause water to flow from high pressure areas onto the periphery of low pressure areas “The inverse Barometer effect” equating to water level rises of up to 100mm for each millibar drop in pressure . Occuring with slow moving systems . Combining to form storm surge.

iii) Wave set up;

Wave set up occurs shoreward of the breaker zone Wave set up at the shoreline can be in the order of 15% of the equivalent deep water significant wave height. Where off shore depths are relatively shallow over a wide shelf , wind setup becomes a more significant component in elevated water levels.

iv) Wave run up;

The vertical distance between the maximum height a wave runs up the beach and still water level ; acting with wave set up . Waves are propagated in series groups or sets of large then small waves. Leading to water level changes in periods of minutes and which are amplified in shallow water. termed surf beat. Wave set up and run up vary with surf beat .

v) River Flooding;

Generally accompanies Low pressure systems and runoff increases water volume. Raising tidal levels at the estuary and river mouth . Often combining to form coastal bombora waves with tidal changes in estuaries and around harbour headlands.

vi) Tidal Waves;

Caused by earthquakes and crystal movements of the earth and atom bombs. Generally infrequent and recur at 100 year intervals . 1960 water level oscillations at Fort Denison over 45 minutes and crest to trough measurements max. of 0.84 M.

vii) Greenhouse effect;

Carbon emission levels causing an increase in the Earths surface temperature relating to Eustatic changes . The heated ocean water expanding and causing an increase in global sea levels.

viii) Global Changes in meteorological conditions;

Changes in the Southern Oscillation Index / El Nino effect and Continental Shelf waves cause medium term variation in the mean sea level. persisting for periods of 1 to 5 years . Sea levels varying by 100mm over the long run and 200mm over a short run of weeks.

ix) Eustatic changes;

Eustatic changes are Long term global changes in sea level , caused by changes in the Polar Ice Caps.

x) Tectonic changes.

The Sydney region is tectonically stable and it is assumed that it will remain so in geological terms.

Global climate change (warming) will impact the level of the watertable associated with the isthmus due to expected changes in sea levels and tidal levels as a direct result of polar thawing. The Site Water Table equates to measured tidal sea levels.

Current rise in sea level ; 1mm per annum. Estimated rise in sea level due to Eustatic change and resultant polar thawing is from ;200mm minimum to 1400mm maximum.6

4.2. EXTREME TIDE LEVEL FREQUENCY .

ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL RISE . SYDNEY HARBOUR .Projection 1996-2096.7

FREQUENCY HEIGHT.(M). Height(M) + 0.2. Height(M) + 1.4.

1. in 1. year. 2.18. 2.38. 3.58. 1. in 10 . year. 2.30. 2.5. 3.7. 1. in 20 . year. 2.33. 2.53. 3.73. 1. in 50 . year. 2.38. 2.58. 3.78. 1. in 100. year. 2.41. 2.61. 3.81.

Datum of Levels Zero Camp Cove.

Existing Water Table ; REFER CLAUSE 4.10. AHD 3.67. and 3.68 meters at east Esplanade wall . GL at AHD 3700 to AHD 4100.

4.3. MEAN. SAMPLES AND PROJECTION AHD 2.88 M.

Variation +/- 600mm . Daily.

Projected Mean Increase. 0.56 M . FOR THE CENTURY

WT. varying at approximately 3500 to 4500 mm below ground level ;

Tidal Levels would rise to ; Average; 2940 to 3940 mm below ground level. 560 mm rise. Minimum; 3300 to 4300 mm below ground level. 200 mm rise. Maximum; 2100 to 3100 mm below ground level. 1400 mm rise.

In the worst case WT. @ 2100mm. below existing ground level.

PROJECTION FREQUENCY HEIGHT.(M). Height.(M). Date.(M/Y). H + AV. RISE. 1. in 1 year. 2.18 2.2 7/92,7/91,6/85,6/97,7/74, 6/74,6/73. 3.4 2.21 6/47. 3.41 2.22 12/50. 3.42 2.23 8/21. 3.43 2.24 7/78. 3.44 2.26 7/64. 3.46 2.27 6/84. 3.47 1. in 10 . year. 2.3 2.32 6/56. 3.52 1. in 20 . year. 2.33 2.35 4/90. 3.55 1. in 50 . year. 2.38 2.38 3.58 1. in 100. year. 2.41 2.4 5/74. 3.6

STANDARD DEVIATION. 0.6180152563997568 Minimum 2.2 Maximum. 3.6 RANGE 1.4 VARIANCE 0.38194285714285714 n 17 mean. 2.2517647058823529 MEAN. SAMPLES AND PROJECTION 2.88 M.

SUM SAMPLES. 38.28

Mean Samples. 2.2517647058823529 Sum of squares of samples. 86.2728

GENERAL INCREASE IN METERS. YEARLY ABOVE MEAN OF PROJECTION. YEARLY 0.7 M. 10 YEARLY 0.58 M. 20 YEARS 0.55 M. 50 YEARS 0.5 M. 100 YEARS 0.47 M.

Projected Mean Increase. 0.56 M. Noting that a 200mm increase will annually equal the recorded decade maximum.

CONCLUSION; A 200mm increase in tidal level approximates annually to the equivalent recorded maximum of 1974 and of the 20th century . An Annual 700 mm increase equates to a 116.59 % Sea in current terms and a Rise to 3.6. M equates to a 149.37 % Sea incurrent terms. Implying a 50% increase in associated forces at the maximum rise.

4.4. TIDAL REFERENCE POINT CHANGE .

TIDAL REFERENCE POINTS - SYDNEY. REF;OCEAN LEVELS. REF;OCEAN LEVELS+0.7M REF;OCEAN LEVELS+1.4M

BENCHMARK. LANDS DEPARTMENT. BMLD. 9.705 9.705 9.705 MEAN HIGH WATER SPRINGS. MHWS 1.555 2.255 2.955 MEAN HIGH WATER LEVEL. MHW 1.431 2.131 2.831 MEAN HIGH WATER NEAPS MHWN 1.306 2.006 2.706 WATER LEVEL AT PARTICULAR TIME WL MEAN SEA LEVEL MSL 0.916 1.616 2.316 MEAN LOW WATER NEAPS. MLWN 0.526 1.226 1.926 MEAN LOW WATER MLW 0.402 1.102 1.802 MEAN LOW WATER SPRINGS MLWS 0.278 0.978 1.678 INDIAN SPRING LOW WATER ISLW 0.028 0.728 1.428 ZERO CAMP COVE H.D. 0 0.7 1.4

4.6. FREEHOLD TITLE TO WATERFRONTAGES.

Mean High water Level determines the position of freehold title to waterfrontages. The yearly rise of 700mm is indicated in the Table and the expected maximum of 1400mm is similarly calculated and both are charted for reference purposes.

4.7. IMPACTS; DATA SETS RESULTS.

Global Warming and temperature rises induce a major environmental change. these changes are considered preferable to cooling and the onset of previous ice ages which are generally regarded as more destructive to human existence.

Initially seas rise with the increasing temperature ; the tidal level is raised to an annual maximum equal to the centuries maximum . Noting that the 1974 record was accompanied by widespread coastal erosion . The Watertable on the Manly isthmus will rise by an estimated 560mm average for the century. Increased temperature will result in seasonal change with a tendency for a more tropical climate in Sydney .

Generally the Cyclone season will be extended and the frequency of cyclones is expected to increase on the north coast . The possible pressure differential will be greater due to the increased temperature range . and cyclone phenomena will be stronger ie The temperature range on a mean monthly level may increase . Higher storm seas are expected in these periods cyclonic periods . Seas will be at greatest thermal expansion in summer and highest tide levels are expected with the sun and moons alignment . Winters become warmer and summers hotter with expected maximums to exceed 35 degrees and intermittently reach 40 degrees Celsius .

Sydneys climate approaches that currently experienced by Brisbane. Relative humidity is similarly expected to increase with higher temperatures . Humiture becomes dangerous to persons activity from 2000 to 2010 in the worst case scenario. Precipitation recordings are similarly expected to rise . Rainfalls will be heavier in the higher temperature band and the southerly afternoon change is expected to be accompanied by heavier rainfalls . The Polar caps will contract and and the shoreline will change . With the reduction in ozone increased solar radiation is expected with a rise in alpha and beta ray penetration of the atmosphere . Ultra violet light intensity will increase proportionately to depletion . Pending any effective global SO3 reduction strategy . CO2 Emmissions increase Biodiversity change with tropical and subtropical plants becoming more prodigious and competitive in Temperate zones . Plants like Doda , and Lantana although currently noxious weeds and antibiotic resistant bacteria place serious threat to older Pre Cambrian , Ordivician , Silurian , Devonian , Carboniferous , Permian , Triassic , Jurassic , Cretacious , Tertiary and Quarternary Periods life forms .

The annual result of an expected rise in Mean Sea Level of 700mm to a maximum of 1400mm . Directly raises the propensity for the capillary rising of soluble salts in porous materials. ie concrete and brick. and increasing the likelihood of spalling due to crystallisation of salts in surface layers of soft materials. Leading to their rapid and eventual erosion.

Flooding due to maximum sea occurrences wave and wind set up and foreshore erosion and long term shifts in the isthmus should be addressed on a community level . Dredging and beach reformation may form solutions to the redesign of the wave impact and motion areas of Manly beach generally.

Nominating tank modelling for optimised results aiming towards the perpendicular bar pattern to wave setup motion in triangulated groups ; breaking for nominated wave set heights.

5. OZONE .

The World Meteorological Organisation reported that ozone levels over Europe and North America had fallen 10-15% since the 1980’s and that the Antarctic Ozone hole had doubled in size in the preceding year , to twice the size of Europe . Increasing in severity nature and extent for the past 10 years .

Ozone is a triatomic form of oxygen occurring in small quantities in the region 15-35 km above the earth. ozone forms 90km above the earth and when O2 molecules are broken up by ultra violet radiation to produce monatomic oxygen O. 30 to 60 km above the earth these atoms combine to form O3 . ozone.

Ozone forms a protective shield to ultraviolet radiation .A 16% depletion of ozone content of the atmosphere could cause a 44% increase in ultra violet radiation . in the mid latitudes leading to a 100% increase in incidence of skin cancer : depletion of 16-30% would cause large scale die off of marine microorganisms effecting the base of the food chain . 8

Impacts generally expected are increases in skin cancer and genetic mutations due to increased UV exposure , noting that the FCCC strategy will not be effective in reducing ozone depletion the expected Impacts of a doubling of the ozone hole annually are expected .

5.1. OZONE PROTECTION.

The Commonwealths regulatory frame work was established in by the Ozone Protection Act 1989 The list of scheduled substances , subject to control consists of the following prohibited items;9

Stage 1 CFC's Stage 2 CFC's Halons Other Substances. CFC-11. CFC-13. Halon-1211. Carbon tetrachloride. CFC-12. CFC-111. Halon-1301. Methyl chloroform. CFC-113. CFC-112. Halon-2402. CFC-114. CFC-211. CFC-115. CFC-213. CFC-214. CFC-215. CFC-216. CFC-217.

HCFC’s are being used to substitute CFC’s until the years 2010-2030.

6. CONCLUSION. The Climatic changes expected are ; if managed upon a macro- and regional scale , likely to considerabaly change the nature of the environment and associated activities . A net warming is considered better than cooling. These Impacts will effect more tropical regional areas in the immediate near future in a more extreme manner and as a result of rising humiture , consequent drought lack of food etc. demographic changes will result with net migration occuring to the temperate zones . Brisbane like climatic conditions will eventually occur in Sydney .The environment is likeley to become more extreme in temperature range. Hotter summers greater temperature differential therefore stronger cyclones ,stronger winds, heavier rains etc. the areas of such tropical occurences would extend further south.Drought may be more widespread last longer. Seasonal temperature range may be greater causing winter cold and high heat in one day. Summers will be at peak times dangerously hot.